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Fundamental Analysis — Mon, 05 Jul 2010 02:12:05 +0000

A mixed-bag US jobs report on Friday saw markets end a rough week on a cautious note. Nonfarm payrolls fell 125k in June, in line with consensus as the Government shed 225k temporary workers for the 2010 census. The key private jobs number rose 83k, below economists expectations for an

EUR/USD Bottoming

Fundamental Analysis — Sat, 03 Jul 2010 06:41:57 +0000

The dollar was higher against the yen but lower versus the euro ahead of the 4th of July weekend. US nonfarm payrolls fell for the time this year and factory orders declined for the first time in nine months, signaling US economic growth is slowing. For the week, the USD

Holiday Trading Volatility Wins out Against NFP Event Risk to Hold Crude from Deeper Plunge

John Kicklighter — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 22:25:15 +0000

Friday’s trading conditions were highly unusual. On the one hand, the market was heading into the final session of the week with a strong pace of risk aversion and the monthly US nonfarm payrolls offered a specific event that could help or hinder the market’s activity.

Next Week Critical for EURUSD and AUD

Fundamental Analysis — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 20:40:21 +0000

More signs of ugliness in the US economy as the May Factory orders number showed a sharp contraction of -1.4% vs. a much smaller negative reading expected. As we discussed this morning, the US jobs report was far more negative than the headlines suggest, as the absolute number of people

The Week Ahead: EUR Bounces and the USD Sags

Fundamental Analysis — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 19:30:51 +0000

The Euro came storming back in a massive wave of short covering on the first trading day of July and a day before US employment data was released. The ostensible basis for the rebound was the successful 3 month ECB refinancing operation (more below), but a more likely explanation was

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary

Fundamental Analysis — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 19:19:16 +0000

Neither too hot (no boom) nor too cold (no double dip recession) appears to be the story for the second half of this year. But this is a recovery that pleases no one. Two themes in our outlook were reinforced by the data this week. First, certainly the pace of

The Weekly Bottom Line

Fundamental Analysis — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 19:07:15 +0000

Financial markets continued to express unease about the strength and viability of the economic recovery this week. As of 1 pm on Friday, the S&P 500 index was down by 5.1% on the week, contributing to the 16.2% fall in stock valuations since the end of April 2010. Beyond the

Q1 Currency Reserves: EUR Below 30% in EM, ‘Others’ Gain

Fundamental Analysis — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 17:04:36 +0000

The IMF earlier this week published its latest quarterly update of the composition of official foreign exchange reserves (Cofer data). Concentrating on the allocated reserves at the World level, the share of the USD fell marginally to 61.55% in Q1-10 from 62.17% in Q4-09. The share of EUR edged lower

Weekly Market Commentary

Fundamental Analysis — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 16:57:28 +0000

Watch equity indices for weekly closes at new lows for the year. Following on from Q2′s ‘bearish engulfing’ this should maintain downside pressure into Q3. Investors are expected to be increasingly picky about parking their money and yield curves should flatten as they are prepared to go out along the

US: A Mixed Labour Market Report

Fundamental Analysis — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 15:39:52 +0000

On balance, the details of the report were a bit disappointing with several signs that the pace of hiring in the private sector is slowing. We had looked for a positive payback to private payrolls of at least 100,000, as public hiring for the census in May had crowded out